Openness and Consensuality: Narrative Based on Openness Index

2025-05-20

The strength of action leads to progress in knowledge, and the depth of knowledge leads to progress in action. "For four consecutive years, we have launched a special research result called the" World Openness Report ", which reviews history, summarizes practice, looks forward to the future, attempts to comprehensively scan the trend of world openness, weigh the progress of global openness, analyze the difficulties of open development, propose open and shared strategies, aiming to form a consensus for the world to jointly expand openness, gather the positive energy of global freedom and openness, and form a benign" self fulfilling prophecy ". The World Open Index is the core achievement and major innovation of the report. How to describe the level of openness in the world economy, analyze its trends, explain its reasons, and explore its impacts has always been a focus of attention for the political, business, academic, and public sectors. On the basis of drawing on the wisdom and achievements of colleagues from around the world, we have researched, compiled, released, and improved this index with the aim of measuring the level of world openness, demonstrating the "advance and retreat" of countries' openness, providing forward-looking guidance on opening-up policies, forming a consensus on expanding openness in the world, promoting the positive evolution of globalization, building an open world economy, building a community with a shared future for mankind, and constructing a world of lasting peace, universal security, common prosperity, openness, inclusiveness, cleanliness, and beauty. The innovation of this index lies in its methodology: it takes into account both the reasons for openness and the results of openness, using expert survey methods to empower openness policies and openness performance; It also takes into account both domestic and international openness, coordinating inbound and outbound flows, reflecting high representativeness and broad application prospects. The measurement range of this index is divided into two aspects: open policies and open outcomes, with a total of 29 basic indicators covering 129 economies from 2008 to 2023, including cross-border openness in the three dimensions of economy, society, and culture. This index has the following characteristics. Seeking truth: To accurately measure the degree of openness of countries and regions around the world, following scientific theories of openness, applying appropriate statistical methods, and collecting objective and reliable data from international authoritative institutions such as the United Nations, the World Trade Organization, and the World Bank. Realism: It not only follows the mainstream views of the international economic community, but also conforms to the open practices of today's world and the open policies of various countries. It comprehensively considers the flow of factors such as goods, services, personnel, funds, and information, focusing on economic openness, especially trade openness, combined with related social and cultural openness, while also taking into account national differences. New Release: Breakthrough in extending the time window of the index to the nearest possible time. For some indicators that have not yet released official data, a universal statistical method was used to estimate the basic data, allowing the index to be updated to the year before the release of the report, effectively improving timeliness and policy reference. In 2024, for the first time, a survey questionnaire will be distributed to experts in academia, politics, and business at home and abroad to analyze the main factors affecting openness, respond to the world's "changes" with the "unchanged" openness, and seek the truth "way" to solve the problem of openness. The results of the Open Index measurement reveal a significant positive correlation between economic growth and open development, with higher levels of economic development leading to higher levels of openness; If policies are appropriate, there will be a positive interaction between economic development and the level of openness, and greater openness will drive greater development. This is not only a clear proof that expanding opening up can "connect blood vessels" and promote the prosperity of the world economy, but also a warning that isolation and closure will lead to "qi stagnation and blood stasis" and difficulties in the development of the world economy. Overall, the world's openness in 2023 continues the overall downward trend since 2008, with intensified differentiation in openness between countries, fields, and regions. The collision and confrontation between active openness and conservative closure are intense, and maintaining and expanding world openness still requires joint efforts and mutual efforts from all countries. The current situation of the open trend is worrying. In 2023, the World Open Index was 0.7542, a decrease of 5.43% from 2008, and the eighth consecutive year between 0.75 and 0.76, a decrease of 0.38% from 2019, the second lowest level since 2008. The foundation for recovery is still unstable. The rebound of world economic openness needs to be sustained, and social and cultural openness is hovering at a relatively low level. The expansion of opening-up policies is not enough to improve the sluggish performance of opening-up. From 2020 to 2023, the number of global trade intervention measures will remain above 4700, significantly higher than the level before 2020. The World Trade Organization model predicts that in the worst-case scenario of global political competition, the average global trade volume will decrease by 13% and average income will decrease by 5%. The effectiveness of the opening up did not meet expectations. In 2023, the World Open Policy Index rose by 0.7%, but the Open Performance Index fell by 1%, indicating that although there have been improvements in open policies, the policy intensity is insufficient and the effect is not significant. The endogenous driving force of openness from the market is still weak, and the "heart to heart" connection in social and cultural exchanges still exists. The openness index of emerging markets and developing economies increased by 0.3%, while that of developed economies decreased by 0.3%. The role of developed economies in promoting openness still needs to be better played. The coldness of the open environment gradually intensifies. The contradictions, risks, and challenges faced by the world's openness still exist and even intensify, and various factors that hinder openness are constantly evolving. With the help of the 'super election year', protectionism and populism are resorting to any means necessary. Regional conflicts and wars continue, the security situation is further volatile, and global supply chain cooperation is facing bottlenecks. From 2020 to 2023, the number of global trade intervention measures exceeded 4700, significantly higher than the level before 2020. The World Trade Organization model predicts that if the world falls into the worst-case scenario of comprehensive geopolitical competition, global average income will decrease by 5% and average trade volume will decrease by 13%. Open roads are approaching. The general direction of human development and progress will not change, the tortuous logic of world history will not change, and the general trend of shared destiny in the international community will not change. According to World Bank data, the ratio of world imports of goods and services to GDP will be 28.5% in 2023, ranking eighth in the 54 years since 1970, and first in 2022 with 30.2%. This trend indicates that economic globalization has not undergone a fundamental reversal, and the "small streams" that promote openness continue to converge tenaciously. The 13th Ministerial Conference of the World Trade Organization (MC13) was held in Abu Dhabi, known as the "Land of Antelope" in Arabic, and achieved practical results of "1+10". Multilateralism has achieved the long-awaited "leap of the antelope" in the "land of the antelope". The problem in openness is not a dilemma of 0 or 1, but finding the most suitable "degree", that is, the "agreeableness" of openness. Simply put, openness is not necessarily better when it is larger or smaller, but should be matched with the basic national conditions, development stage, and global trend. For example, developed countries have an open index of at least 0.75, while developing countries have a relatively high index of 0.6-0.7. The opportunities and challenges of expanding openness coexist. Seizing the opportunities requires a balance between openness and development level, openness progress and competitiveness, openness ability and governance ability, openness strength and responsibility, openness benefits and inclusive sharing. We need to find the "golden combination point" of the two at different periods and levels of development. Currently, there is a growing divergence of interests among countries, obstacles to trade and investment liberalization, fragmented international economic and trade rules, a lagging global governance system, and significant challenges to multilateralism. The insight gained from analyzing the above issues through the historical lens of "a hundred years of change" is that the common prosperity of the world cannot be separated from common openness; The world has enormous potential for openness, and we should promote a "harmonious but diverse" openness to achieve balanced, inclusive, and shared openness; Major powers should take the lead in opening up and actively shoulder the banner of world openness, in order to break free from the "prisoner's dilemma" and ensure a stable and far-reaching path of openness. ——Developed economies should take the path of openness that is inclusive, innovative in domestic affairs, and leading by example. Those who blame others are narrow, while those who blame themselves are lenient. To get rid of the economic development dilemma, we should introspect rather than look outward, and use our own reforms to eradicate the imbalance of development. First, we should do our own things well, take the initiative to shoulder the responsibility of world opening up, and use our own opening up to drive world opening up. ——Emerging economies need to take an open path of innovation cooperation, transformation and upgrading, and greater emphasis on sharing. Continuously tapping into the potential of North South open cooperation, relying on technological progress and industrial upgrading, cultivating dynamic comparative advantages, promoting high-quality development with greater openness, crossing the "middle-income trap", and assuming more moderate and reasonable international responsibilities. ——Developing countries should take the path of openness based on their national conditions, actively participate, and promote benefits and eliminate drawbacks. Committed to cultivating open capabilities, relying not only on "blood transfusion" but also on "blood production", breaking away from "path dependence", leveraging its own advantages to integrate into the global market network, and striving for greater international development space. If they are connected, they will advance together; if they are closed, they will retreat. The dilemma of world development is not caused by openness, but requires greater openness to overcome; The general direction of economic globalization has not changed, but has entered a new stage of adjustment, momentum building, and starting again. This is not only a prophecy, but also a vision, and the only way for the world to emerge from zero sum games and move towards a virtuous cycle. (Xinhua News Agency) Author: Zhang Yuyan: Member of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, President of the China Society of World Economics, Dean of the School of International Political Economy at the University of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences Liu Shiguo: Researcher at the Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences Zang Chengwei: Assistant Researcher at the Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences

Edit:Luo yu    Responsible editor:Jia jia

Source:Chinanews.com

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