According to the data released by the People's Bank of China on May 14, at the end of April, the stock of social financing scale grew by 8.7% year on year, and the broad money supply (M2) grew by 8.0% year on year, both significantly faster than last month; At the end of April, the balance of various RMB loans increased by 7.2% year-on-year, exceeding 8.0% after recovering the impact of local debt replacement. Experts say that the growth of financial aggregate data in April is both "stable" and "real", reflecting a moderately loose monetary policy orientation. From the financial total data of the past four months, the scale of social financing M2、 The growth rate of RMB loans continues to be higher than the nominal GDP growth rate, and the financial support for the real economy remains stable. According to supporting data, the cumulative increase in social financing scale in the first four months of 2025 is 16.34 trillion yuan, which is 3.61 trillion yuan more than the same period last year; At the end of April, the stock of social financing scale was 424.0 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.7%. This year, the financial support is strong and the pace of bond issuance is fast, supporting the expansion of domestic demand and the broadening of credit, which provides strong support for the scale of social financing. ”Experts said that the pace of issuance of treasury bond and special bonds since the beginning of the year was also significantly faster than in previous years. It is worth mentioning that the Ministry of Finance has recently launched work related to the issuance of 1.3 trillion yuan of ultra long term special treasury bond to support "two new" and "two heavy" issues. It is expected that the subsequent issuance of ultra long term special treasury bond will maintain a fast pace, promote demand, boost social confidence, and also support the scale of social financing. In terms of M2, as of the end of April, the balance of M2 was 325.17 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.0%. Under the low base effect of last year, the year-on-year growth rate of M2 increased at the end of April this year. Upon investigation, experts have analyzed that, on one hand, the financial data during the same period last year showed a more pronounced squeeze. In April of this year, the overall growth momentum of monetary credit remained stable and good. The low base of the same period last year will push up the current data in the calculation of balance growth rate. As the low base effect decreases, the year-on-year growth rate of M2 will return to the normal growth level of the first few months of this year in the future. On the other hand, since the beginning of this year, the bond market has fluctuated in both directions, and there has been no unilateral upward trend like last year. There has also been no significant "relocation" of deposits, and the statistical data shows a year-on-year decrease, which has a positive upward effect on the M2 year-on-year growth rate. Data shows that the growth rate of credit remains at a high level, with RMB loans increasing by 10.06 trillion yuan in the first four months; At the end of April, the balance of various loans in RMB was 265.7 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.2%. After restoring the impact of local debt replacement, the credit growth rate remained at a high level. At the end of April, the growth rate of RMB loans remained significantly higher than the nominal economic growth rate. ”Experts say that after restoring the impact of local debt replacement, the actual loan support is higher than the statistical data shows. The above expert analysis shows that local governments issuing special bonds to replace implicit debt related loans will statistically slow down the growth rate of credit, but in essence, it only changes the financial system's support for the real economy from loans to bonds, without affecting the strength of financial support. In the long run, the replacement of local debt is conducive to reducing the pressure of localized debt, smoothing the capital chain, and using the resources originally used for debt to promote development, benefit people's livelihoods, support investment and consumption, etc; At the same time, it helps to improve the quality of financial assets and prevent and resolve financial risks. From the perspective of credit structure, in recent years, financial institutions have invested more credit resources in the manufacturing and technological innovation fields, and have focused on strengthening financial support for key service consumption industries such as accommodation, catering, cultural and entertainment, education and training from the supply side. The proportion of loans in related industries has significantly increased. Since 2021, the proportion of manufacturing industry in all medium and long-term loans has increased from about 5.1% to about 9.3%, the proportion of consumer industry has increased from about 9.6% to about 11.2%, and the proportion of traditional real estate and construction industry has decreased from about 15.9% to about 13%. In addition, financing costs are also decreasing. According to data from the People's Bank of China, the weighted average interest rate for new loans issued by enterprises in April was about 3.2%, which was about 4 basis points lower than the previous month and about 50 basis points lower than the same period last year; The weighted average interest rate for newly issued personal housing loans is about 3.1%, which is about 55 basis points lower than the same period last year. Policy measures boost market confidence. Experts say that the financial aggregate data continues to be good, reflecting the effect of countercyclical monetary policy adjustment and financial stability of the economy. In the future, the financial aggregate is expected to continue to maintain reasonable growth. The current uncertainty in foreign trade still exists, and local debt replacement work continues to advance. In addition, May is a traditional "small month" for credit, and the industry expects effective credit demand to be affected. However, experts generally believe that the package of financial policy measures jointly launched by the People's Bank of China, the State Administration for Financial Regulation, and the China Securities Regulatory Commission in May has effectively boosted market confidence and played a positive role in restoring effective demand in the real economy. Overall, in the foreseeable future, the total financial output is expected to maintain steady growth. Market insiders say that the People's Bank of China's supportive monetary policy stance has always been firm, and its support for the real economy is consistently strong. (New Society)