Recently, the price of gold has emerged from a roller coaster trend. Taking the international spot price of gold as an example, According to Wind data, since early March this year, the spot price of London gold (hereinafter referred to as "London gold") has rapidly fluctuated upwards, with a monthly increase of 9.28% in March. This upward trend continued in mid to early April, and from April 1st to April 19th, London gold prices rose strongly again by 7.09%. From April 22nd to April 30th, gold prices began to turn downwards, with a 7-day decline of 4.43%. Due to a pullback in the latter part of the month, London gold prices ultimately only rose by 2.34% in April. From May 1st to May 20th, London gold prices showed a volatile upward trend, with an increase of 6.13%. They also hit a record high of $2450.10 per ounce during intraday trading on May 20th. From May 21st to May 23rd, gold prices closed lower for three consecutive trading days. However, as of May 24th (when gold prices closed at $2333.75 per ounce), London gold prices have continued to rise by 2.10% since May, remaining at a high level. Why has the price of gold been experiencing significant fluctuations recently? Liu Siyuan, Chief Analyst of Leading Financial, stated in an interview with Securities Daily that the main reason is the strong market divergence regarding the future. The recent economic and employment data in the United States has been mixed, leading to the Federal Reserve's increasingly cautious attitude towards rate cuts, and the window for rate cuts has been repeatedly delayed. Short term bullies in gold continue to push up the price of gold by taking advantage of the expectation of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut, overdrawing the expected increase, leading to highly sensitive market sentiment. If the US economic data is unfavorable for interest rate cuts, short-term bulls will quickly cash in profits and leave, leading to significant fluctuations in gold prices. According to reports, on May 23rd Beijing time, the latest PMI (Purchasing Managers Index) for the United States was released. In May, the US Composite PMI index rose to 54.4, the highest level in two years. Among them, the manufacturing PMI reached a new high in 2 months and broke through the 50 mark, while the service industry PMI also reached a new high in 12 months. The minutes of the Federal Reserve's May monetary policy meeting released on the same day also showed that if inflation risks continue to rise, some Federal Reserve officials are willing to raise interest rates again. The unexpected economic data and the hawkish signals released in the minutes of the monetary policy meeting have both put pressure on gold prices. It is worth mentioning that although international gold prices have been fluctuating at high levels since March, market trading sentiment remains hot. The latest data from the World Gold Council shows that in April this year, the global gold market trading volume continued to increase, with the daily average trading volume of the global gold market increasing by 12% compared to the previous month, reaching $247 billion at the end of the month. The exchange rate increased by 6% to 126 billion US dollars per day. Chen Yuheng, Senior Investment Advisor at Jufeng Investment Consulting, told Securities Daily that in the short term, an increase in trading volume usually means an increase in market interest in gold, which may be due to various factors such as global market uncertainty, leading investors to seek safe haven assets. Liu Siyuan also believes that the surge in trading volume carries potential risks beneath the hot surface, indicating a divergence in previously bullish market expectations. He believes that the uncertainty of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy has led to a divergence between the long and short positions of gold in the medium and short term, and it is expected that gold prices will remain at historical highs and continue to fluctuate significantly. (Lai Xin She)