Since mid October, the RMB exchange rate has stabilized again after several consecutive days of appreciation. Looking forward to the future, experts said that the trend of RMB exchange rate will continue to depend on market supply and demand, domestic economic fundamentals and changes in international financial markets. It is possible to appreciate or depreciate. It will be normal to rise and fall and two-way fluctuations. According to Guan Tao, global chief economist of BOC securities, there are three main reasons for the appreciation of the RMB exchange rate since October. First, there was a high correction in the US dollar index. Through the RMB exchange rate pricing mechanism, the US dollar exchange rate has a reverse guiding effect on the RMB exchange rate, that is, the decline of the US dollar index will push the RMB exchange rate higher against the US dollar to a certain extent. Second, China's economic data were adjusted in the third quarter. After the release of the data, the "bad out" and the net inflow of foreign capital resumed. Third, China's exports continue to perform well, the surplus remains at a high level, and the market supply and demand drives the appreciation of the RMB exchange rate, which also reflects the good fundamentals of the domestic economy. In the medium and long term, Guan Tao believes that the tension in the global supply chain has gradually eased, and China's orders may be diverted again. The international economy is recovering hard, overseas demand may weaken, and there are some uncertainties in China's high export growth, which will have a certain impact on the relationship between supply and demand. Cheng Qiang, chief Macro Analyst of CITIC Securities, said that when overseas production tends to improve, the ultra-high outlook of China's foreign trade may fall, which means that the trade surplus may return to a reasonable level. Recently, the impact of market correction and monetary policy easing expectations on the exchange rate level is more one-time rather than trend. In addition, the impact of the Fed's monetary policy shift is still a major variable in the foreign exchange market. Before the end of the year, the Fed may slow down the pace of table expansion, promote the rise of the US long-term interest rate and the US dollar exchange rate, and global funds may return to the United States from developing countries. (outlook new era)